ABPW10 PGTW 270600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJAN2021// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 140.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270200Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAND WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15KTS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, WHICH IS HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3S 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270244Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN

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