ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 140.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY
187 NM SOUTH OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270200Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAND WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (<15KTS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, WHICH IS
HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST
94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.3S 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270244Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P
WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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