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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181145
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Odette, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of 
Nantucket, Massachusetts.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in 
association with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles 
miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further 
development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression 
or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while 
the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph.  This 
system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on 
Monday and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor its progress. 
Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for 
development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the 
early to middle part of next week.  Additional information on this 
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern 
Atlantic a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The 
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little 
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions 
appear conducive for further development during the next couple of 
days.  A tropical depression could form while the system moves 
northwestward at about 10 mph to the west of the Cabo Verde 
Islands before it reaches cooler waters and stronger upper-level 
winds early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under 
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under 
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Odette (AT5/AL152021)

...ODETTE FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 18
 the center of Odette was located near 38.5, -67.3
 with movement NE at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Odette Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 181448
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021
 
...ODETTE FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 67.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Please refer to products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre
for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical
cyclone.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was
located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 67.3 West.  Odette is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A turn toward
the east-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected by this
evening.  Odette should then slow down and turn toward the east and
southeast on Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Odette will pass south of Atlantic Canada Sunday and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is
expected to become a strong post-tropical low by tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the
United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread
northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada
coasts during the weekend.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 181448
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152021
1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N  67.3W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N  67.3W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N  67.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.0N  64.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 210SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.8N  59.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 150SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 42.7N  56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 42.8N  53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.2N  50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 180SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.5N  49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...270NE   0SE 180SW 240NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 41.3N  48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.7N  48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N  67.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 181449
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021
 
Strong shear of about 30 kt from the west-southwest continues to
push all of Odette's deep convection well to the east of the
surface center.  The center itself lacks some definition, with
multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common point.  Odette
is well on its way through the extratropical transition process,
with cold air advection noted on the west side of the circulation,
and a band of overcast clouds on the north side of the developing
warm front.  We're awaiting some new ASCAT data, which should
arrive soon, and for now the initial intensity remains 40 kt based
on continuity.
 
Odette is being picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies, and it is
moving a little faster toward the northeast, or 055/15 kt.  The
cyclone should turn to the east-northeast and accelerate further
later today, but then a significant slow down is expected on
days 3 through 5 when Odette detaches from the mid-latitude flow
and meanders to the southeast of Newfoundland.  In contrast to
yesterday, the global models are in much better agreement on this
scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has been hedged in the
direction of the GFEX consensus aids, since the GFS and ECMWF
global models should have a good handle on the behavior of an
extratropical cyclone.
 
The global models vary slightly on when extratropical
transition will be complete, but the GFS- and ECMWF-based
SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it should happen by this evening
or tonight.  Baroclinic forcing will likely be the main contributor
to Odette's expected strengthening over the next few days, and the
intensity models, including the GFS and ECMWF global models, have
been consistent in showing the peak winds reaching about 55 kt in
36-48 hours.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to occlude and
lose its upper-air support in about 48 hours, which should lead to
gradual weakening through the end of the 5-day forecast period.
 
Odette's wind field is expected to expand significantly during the
next few days while the system becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.  The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to affect portions
of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and
Monday.  Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane 
Centre for additional information on potential impacts in 
Newfoundland.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 38.5N  67.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 40.0N  64.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 41.8N  59.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/0000Z 42.7N  56.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/1200Z 42.8N  53.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  21/0000Z 42.2N  50.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/1200Z 41.5N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/1200Z 41.3N  48.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1200Z 42.7N  48.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Odette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 181449
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152021               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   4( 8)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   2(15)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  1  29(30)  10(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Odette Graphics

Tropical Storm Odette 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Sep 2021 14:51:00 GMT

Tropical Storm Odette 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Sep 2021 15:22:51 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181102
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 18 Sep 2021 15:23:00 GMT