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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251707
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Epsilon, located a few hundred miles east-southeast of Cape Race 
Newfoundland, and on Tropical Storm Zeta, located over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Zeta are issued under WMO header 
WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Zeta are issued under WMO 
header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

...LARGE EPSILON IS NEARLY EXTRATROPICAL AS IT CONTINUES RACING  EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY...
 As of 9:00 PM GMT Sun Oct 25
 the center of Epsilon was located near 46.2, -44.3
 with movement ENE at 46 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 964 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 28

Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 252036
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020
 
...LARGE EPSILON IS NEARLY EXTRATROPICAL AS IT CONTINUES RACING 
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.2N 44.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 46.2 North, longitude 44.3 West.  Epsilon is
moving toward the east-northeast near 46 mph (74 km/h).  A fast
east-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected through
Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected over the next
several hours, and Epsilon is expected to become a large and
powerful extratropical cyclone tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 370 miles (595 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 28

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 252035
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020
2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.2N  44.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  40 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 180SE 160SW  90NW.
34 KT.......230NE 320SE 310SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 670SE 850SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.2N  44.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.0N  46.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.4N  35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 160SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 350SE 370SW 350NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 54.4N  26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  80SE 160SW 140NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 420SW 400NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.2N  44.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 28

Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 252036
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020
 
Epsilon is nearly extratropical, with late morning scatterometer 
data showing that the circulation has become stretched out as the 
cyclone interacts with a high-latitude low pressure system and an 
associated mid- upper-level trough to its north. The main reason 
that the cyclone is still classifiable as a tropical cyclone is
persistent deep convection very near the center of circulation. 
Based on the scatterometer data showing an area of peak winds of 
56 kt, the initial intensity is being lowered to 60 kt.
 
What remains of the trapped tropical airmass near the center of the
cyclone supporting the deep convection should mix out over the next
few hours, as Epsilon moves over cold waters of about 15 degrees C
and continues to wrap cooler and stable air into its circulation.
The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful until it is
absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic
in about 24-36 h.
 
Epsilon is racing east-northeastward at around 40 kt, embedded 
within the mid-latitude westerlies. A fast east-northeastward or 
northeastward motion is expected to continue until the system gets 
absorbed by the aforementioned high-latitude low pressure system. 
The latest NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the 
previous one and remains in the middle of the tightly clustered 
consensus guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 46.2N  44.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 49.4N  35.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1800Z 54.4N  26.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 252036
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 46.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Storm Epsilon Graphics

Tropical Storm Epsilon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 20:38:38 GMT

Tropical Storm Epsilon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 21:25:17 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)

...ZETA STRONGER... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 25
 the center of Zeta was located near 17.7, -83.4
 with movement Stationary.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 252127 CCA
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number   5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Corrected Present Movement

...ZETA STRONGER...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 83.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel
 
 A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 83.4 West.  Zeta has 
been meandering or nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early
Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.
 
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that 
the maximum sustained winds have increased near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 
hours, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves 
near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba,  and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.  Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches
possible across Southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.
 
By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday.  Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in Western Cuba on
Monday.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 252053
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020
2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  83.4W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  83.4W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  83.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.7N  84.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N  85.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N  87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.2N  89.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.7N  90.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.4N  90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.0N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  83.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 252055
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Although the overall cloud pattern of Zeta is still not very well 
organized, with a lack of distinct banding features, it continues to 
generate very intense deep convection mainly over the southeastern 
portion of the circulation.  Moreover, in spite of its ragged 
appearance, the storm has strengthened today.  Reports from a NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system this afternoon 
indicate that, based on adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed 
surface winds, the intensity has increased to near 45 kt and the 
central pressure has fallen to 999 mb.  Since the storm will be 
moving over the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea and in a moist environment with low vertical shear 
through Monday, strengthening is forecast and Zeta will likely 
become a hurricane before it nears the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or 
so.  After Zeta moves into the Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear 
is likely to increase and oceanic heat content below the cyclone 
will diminish, especially when the system approaches the northern 
Gulf coast on Wednesday.  Therefore, no strengthening is forecast in 
2-3 days and Zeta could be weakening by the time it reaches the 
northern Gulf coast.  However, the intensity forecast is still 
subject to significant uncertainty.

The center has been meandering this afternoon, and apparently has 
reformed nearer to the deep convection over the southeastern 
quadrant.  Since this is not considered representative of 
larger-scale motion, the system is still considered to be 
quasi-stationary at this time.  However, the track guidance is in 
agreement that Zeta will move northwestward over the next 1-2 days, 
passing near or over the Yucatan Peninsula.  Thereafter, the cyclone 
is likely to turn north-northwestward to northward while it moves on 
the western side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone near Florida.  A 
turn toward the north-northeast is expected when Zeta nears the 
northern Gulf coast, due to an approaching shortwave trough.  The 
track guidance has more than the usual amount of spread at the 
72-hour time frame, with the ECMWF and the GFS predictions being 
about 300 miles apart near the northern Gulf coast.  The official 
forecast track lies between these 2 solutions, and is similar to the 
previous NHC track.  However, given the inherent uncertainties, one 
should not focus on the exact forecast track.

Based on the new intensity forecast, the government of Mexico has 
issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Yucatan peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of 
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early 
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western 
Cuba on Monday.
 
2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across 
portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, 
the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the 
Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or just below hurricane strength when 
it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an 
increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from 
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should 
monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 17.7N  83.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 18.7N  84.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 19.7N  85.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 21.1N  87.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 48H  27/1800Z 23.2N  89.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 25.7N  90.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 29.4N  90.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 96H  29/1800Z 37.0N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020                                              

397 
FONT13 KNHC 252054
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   X(16)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)   X(24)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   X(18)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   X(22)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  22(27)   X(27)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  20(30)   X(30)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  19(31)   X(31)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   9(26)   X(26)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  23(42)   X(42)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)  18(46)   X(46)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)  15(45)   X(45)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)   X(14)
STENNIS MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  36(36)  11(47)   X(47)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   4(14)   X(14)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  45(46)   5(51)   X(51)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   8(21)   X(21)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  11(42)   X(42)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   3(15)   X(15)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  53(54)   2(56)   X(56)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   1(24)   X(24)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   6(29)   X(29)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   6(34)   X(34)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
MORGAN CITY LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   4(20)   X(20)
LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
LAFAYETTE LA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   4(23)   X(23)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   X(20)   X(20)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X  16(16)  62(78)   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   4( 4)  43(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   1( 1)  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
HAVANA         34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  16(33)   X(33)
PENSACOLA NAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)
PENSACOLA NAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)  17(49)   X(49)
KEESLER AB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   X(15)
KEESLER AB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics

Tropical Storm Zeta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 21:28:27 GMT

Tropical Storm Zeta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 20:58:40 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251738
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Latto

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 25 Oct 2020 21:52:39 GMT