Tropical Cyclone Forecast

[Computer Generated Synopsis for possible Typhoon Warning Advisories]

Time and Date in UTZ:

252130

-If Typhoon or Invest is Detected on RADAR

-It Will Automatically Generated Below

Sequence with Date and Time:

REISSUED/252130Z-260600ZOCT2020 /251951ZOCT2020 /251952ZOCT2020

NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//

TYPHOON WARNINGS for East Asian Pacific:

(180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

Summary 1: (1) AT 25OCT20 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 252100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. (2) AT 25OCT20 1800Z, TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 121.8E, APPROXIMATELY 96 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 252100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

Summary 2: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY 146 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251827Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED THROUGHOUT. INVEST 99W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30- 31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY BEFORE CROSSING THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

Summary 3: NONE.

TYPHOON WARNINGS for U.S West Pacific:

(WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

Summary 1: NONE.

Summary 2: NONE.

Summary 3: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR TD 19W.//
Cyclone Forecast

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Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Guidance

TROPICAL STORM Advisory "if active" Courtesy of: Joint Typhoon Warning Center for Cyclone watch and Rosentiel school of marine and atmospheric science, and also to Weathernerds.org for Tropical Cyclone Forecast Guidance Tracks above

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