Tropical Cyclone Forecast

[Computer Generated Synopsis for possible Typhoon Warning Advisories]

Time and Date in UTZ:

270600

-If Typhoon or Invest is Detected on RADAR

-It Will Automatically Generated Below

Sequence with Date and Time:

/270600Z-280600ZJAN2021

TYPHOON WARNINGS for East Asian Pacific:

(180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

Summary 1: NONE.

Summary 2: NONE.

Summary 3: NONE.

TYPHOON WARNINGS for U.S West Pacific:

(WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

Summary 1: NONE.

Summary 2: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 140.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270200Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAND WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15KTS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, WHICH IS HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3S 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270244Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

Summary 3: NONE.
Cyclone Forecast

Current Realtime Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

Cyclone Track Cyclone Track

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Guidance

TROPICAL STORM Advisory "if active" Courtesy of: Joint Typhoon Warning Center for Cyclone watch and Rosentiel school of marine and atmospheric science, and also to Weathernerds.org for Tropical Cyclone Forecast Guidance Tracks above

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