ABPW10 PGTW 240600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZJUN2025// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZJUN2025// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 24JUN25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 141.0E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKLY FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT 240308Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURE AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A RECENT 240400Z SHIP OBSERVATION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION REVEALS 17KT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT LIKELIHOOD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST 96W TO ONLY REACH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS, WHEREAS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE MEMBERS REACHING 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN