ABPW10 PGTW 210600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZOCT2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZOCT2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 21OCT24 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 669 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED AREA OF TROUGHING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR LLCC IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 210042Z ASCAT METOP-C SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS MODERATE (15-20KT) WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 97W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF HIGH SHEAR TO THE NORTH, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN