Time and Date in UTZ:

180600

/180600Z-190600ZAUG2026 /180552ZJUN2021 AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL

TYPHOON WARNINGS for East Asian and Western Pacific:

(180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

Summary 1:

NONE.

Summary 2:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 157.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 154.9E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 92W AS A QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN ASCAT 082257Z PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST ASSOCIATED WINDS (20-25 KNOTS) WRAPPING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRANSITING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF 92W INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND AGREE WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON A SIMILAR TRACK WITHIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 180600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 132.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER AND EXTENSIVE ELEVATED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 94W AS AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING, WITH CONVECTION BUILDING ON THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OFFSET BY SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 94W WILL TRANSIT NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD BUT DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A SIMILAR TRACK AND INTENSITY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 95W AS A WEAK AREA OF TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), WARM (29 TO 30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. FOR GLOBAL MODELS, GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP 95W INTO A CONSOLIDATED CYCLONE. ENSEMBLE MODELS DO SHOW THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 95W, AND FOR IT TO TAKE A GENERAL SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

Summary 3:

NONE.

TYPHOON WARNINGS for U.S West to East Pacific:

(WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

Summary 1:

NONE.

Summary 2:

NONE.

Summary 3:

NONE