Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
Philippine Date/Time | Alert Message: |
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2024-03-28 14:45 PM | SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5 Begin Time: 2024 Mar 28 0616 UTC Maximum Time: 2024 Mar 28 0629 UTC End Time: 2024 Mar 28 0636 UTC NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes. |
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2024 Mar 28 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels).
Mar 28 | Mar 29 | Mar 30 | |
---|---|---|---|
00-03UT | 2.00 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
03-06UT | 1.33 | 2.00 | 2.33 |
06-09UT | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.00 |
09-12UT | 1.67 | 2.33 | 2.33 |
12-15UT | 1.00 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
15-18UT | 1.33 | 2.33 | 1.00 |
18-21UT | 1.33 | 2.33 | 2.33 |
21-00UT | 1.33 | 2.67 | 2.33 |
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Mar 28 | Mar 29 | Mar 30 | |
---|---|---|---|
S1 or greater | 30% | 30% | 10% |
Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over the next two days due to the flare potential for Region 3615. Probabilities decrease slightly for 30 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 28 2024 0629 UTC.
Mar 28 | Mar 29 | Mar 30 | |
---|---|---|---|
R1-R2 | 75% | 75% | 40% |
R3 or greater | 25% | 25% | 10% |
Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next two days. Probabilities decrease slightly for 30 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 171 |
SOHO EIT 195 |
SOHO EIT 284 |
SOHO EIT 304 |
SDO/HMI Continuum |
SDO/AIA Magnetogram |
LASCO C2 |
LASCO C3 |
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Sun Spots status for 30 Days |
Solar Cycle (mostly can determined every 3 - 13 yrs) |
Spaceweather Notifications and Timeline) |
Forecast KP Index 3 Days Advance |
Click here for much detailed View for X-Ray Chart Click here for much detailed View for Proton Chart
Derived Vertical TEC Derived Vertical Progression. |
Ionospheric / TEC Range Shows Ionospheric Range Error L1/m |
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map |
Southern Hemi Auroral Map |
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
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Move your cursor over the timeline to 'scrub' through the forecast of Solar Wind's velocities. |
Radio Communications Impact
D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTIONS (D-RAP) and VHF and HF Band Conditions
Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:KP Index and Rational Meaning
Global TEC Maps (Unit:TECU)
TACC.CWA (Ionosphere and Space Atmosphere)
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TAC CWB.gov
United States Total Electron Content by SWPC NOAA
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA)
Sunspots (Sidc & NASA)
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather and Ken True of Saratoga Weather
with 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather