Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Jul 13 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 13-Jul 15 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 13-Jul 15 2024
Jul 13Jul 14Jul 15
00-03UT2.334.67 (G1)2.67
03-06UT2.003.673.67
06-09UT1.333.003.00
09-12UT1.332.332.67
12-15UT1.002.672.67
15-18UT3.003.002.67
18-21UT4.333.002.00
21-00UT4.67 (G1)3.002.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 13 and 14 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2024
Jul 13Jul 14Jul 15
S1 or greater15%15%15%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 15 Jul primarily due to the potential and increasingly favorable location exhibited by AR 3738.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jul 07 2024 2231 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2024
Jul 13Jul 14Jul 15
R1-R260%60%60%
R3 or greater15%15%15%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 15 Jul primarily due to the potential and increasingly favorable location exhibited by AR 3738.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SOHO EIT 171
Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 195
SOHO EIT 195 image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
SOHO EIT 304
SOHO EIT 304 image of the sun
 
SDO/HMI Continuum
SDO/HMI Continuum Image of the Sun
SDO/AIA Magnetogram
Latest SDO/HMI Magnetogram image of the Sun
LASCO C2
Latest LASCO C2 image of the Sun
LASCO C3
Latest LASCO C3 image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind

Sun Spots status for 30 Days

Latest of ionospheric total electron content

Solar Cycle (mostly can determined every 3 - 13 yrs)

Latest of ionospheric total electron content

Spaceweather Notifications and Timeline)

Forecast KP Index 3 Days Advance


Click here for much detailed View for X-Ray Chart Click here for much detailed View for Proton Chart



The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.

Total Electron Content (TEC)

A product is designed for single and dual frequency GPS applications. It provides a near real-time assessment of the Total Electron Content (TEC) which is often used as a proxy for GPS position error. The TEC maps can be used to estimate the GPS signal delay due to the ionospheric electron content between a receiver and a GPS satellite. This delay can be translated into GPS positioning error. For more quantitative information see the the link to data files under the “Archive” tab which provides not only tabular values of the total electron content, but also values of line-of-sight (LOS) or slant path electron content to each GPS satellite in view over the CONUS. Users are advised to only use the values within the CONUS, and only when sufficient Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS) data are available to provide a reliable estimate of TEC. The display and data files cover regions outside the CONUS however, there is no data are available in those regions and the model relies on climatology in regions where there is not data. Results from these regions should be avoided as the uncertainty in the modeled TEC is expected to be large. Several warning flags have been built into the display. If data are unavailable for up to an hour, a banner will warn users that no data have been used in the assimilation cycle. If no data have been available for greater than one hour, a statement with the time the input data have been missing and the latest TEC map are displayed. Last 24 hours of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) world maps are produced at TACC by using the TEC between 80 km and top collected from the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC. The bottom locations of occultations are marked as the black dots in the map, the total number of occultations is displayed above the map.

Derived Vertical TEC
Derived Vertical Progression.

Derived Vertical Progression.

Ionospheric / TEC Range
Ionospheric Range Error.

Shows Ionospheric Range Error L1/m


Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Move your cursor over the timeline to 'scrub' through the forecast of Solar Wind's velocities.

Radio Communications Impact

D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTIONS (D-RAP) and VHF and HF Band Conditions

X-Ray

The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere. The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.


Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
KP Index and Rational Meaning
Global TEC Maps (Unit:TECU)
TACC.CWA (Ionosphere and Space Atmosphere)
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TAC CWB.gov
United States Total Electron Content by SWPC NOAA
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA)
Sunspots (Sidc & NASA)

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

Powered by Space Weather PHP script by Mike Challis
additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather and Ken True of Saratoga Weather
with 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather