Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 May 31 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 31-Jun 02 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 31-Jun 02 2023
May 31Jun 01Jun 02
21-00UT1.671.674.67 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02 Jun due to anticipated CH HSS effects.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2023
May 31Jun 01Jun 02
S1 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 30 2023 1338 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2023
May 31Jun 01Jun 02
R3 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Real Time Images of the Sun

Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
SDO/MLSO Magnetogram Image
Latest Mauna Loa image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Images of the solar corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.
Latest SEASRT Time Series
Images of SEASERT Time Series
SEASRT Surface Charging Monitoring.
Real-Time Solar KP Index
Graph showing Real-Time Solar AP
Tracking for Geomagnetic KP Index.

Sun Spots status for 30 Days

Latest of ionospheric total electron content

Solar Cycle (mostly can determined every 3 - 13 yrs)

Latest of ionospheric total electron content

Spaceweather Notifications and Timeline)

Latest of ionospheric total electron content

Nowcast KP Index

Space weather overview

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.

Total Electron Content (TEC)

A product is designed for single and dual frequency GPS applications. It provides a near real-time assessment of the Total Electron Content (TEC) which is often used as a proxy for GPS position error. The TEC maps can be used to estimate the GPS signal delay due to the ionospheric electron content between a receiver and a GPS satellite. This delay can be translated into GPS positioning error. For more quantitative information see the the link to data files under the “Archive” tab which provides not only tabular values of the total electron content, but also values of line-of-sight (LOS) or slant path electron content to each GPS satellite in view over the CONUS. Users are advised to only use the values within the CONUS, and only when sufficient Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS) data are available to provide a reliable estimate of TEC. The display and data files cover regions outside the CONUS however, there is no data are available in those regions and the model relies on climatology in regions where there is not data. Results from these regions should be avoided as the uncertainty in the modeled TEC is expected to be large. Several warning flags have been built into the display. If data are unavailable for up to an hour, a banner will warn users that no data have been used in the assimilation cycle. If no data have been available for greater than one hour, a statement with the time the input data have been missing and the latest TEC map are displayed. Last 24 hours of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) world maps are produced at TACC by using the TEC between 80 km and top collected from the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC. The bottom locations of occultations are marked as the black dots in the map, the total number of occultations is displayed above the map.

Latest of ionospheric total electron content

Latest TEC updated every 15 mins.

3D Occulations from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC
Occulations from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC

Shows Occulations from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC.

Derived Vertical TEC
Derived Vertical Progression.

Derived Vertical Progression.

Ionospheric Range
Ionospheric Range Error.

Shows Ionospheric Range Error L1/m

Magnetometer with hmF2 Map
Shows Ionospheric hmF2 Map Progression.

Shows Magnetometer Progression.

Ionospheric Density Map
Shows Ionospheric Density Map in Blue Progression.

Shows Ionospheric Density Map in Blue Progression.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Elevated X-Ray Flux (Solar Flare) and VHF and HF Band Conditions



Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
KP Index and Rational Meaning
Ionosphere and Space Weather
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
United States Total Electron Content by SWPC NOAA
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
Sunspots (Sidc & NASA)

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather and Ken True of Saratoga Weather
with 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather