Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
Philippine Date/Time | Alert Message: |
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2024-11-03 07:06 AM | EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2024 Nov 02 1138 UTC Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 03 0900 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2024 Nov 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 02-Nov 04 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).
Nov 02 | Nov 03 | Nov 04 | |
---|---|---|---|
00-03UT | 0.67 | 2.67 | 3.67 |
03-06UT | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.67 |
06-09UT | 1.67 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
09-12UT | 4.00 | 2.67 | 2.00 |
12-15UT | 4.00 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
15-18UT | 2.67 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
18-21UT | 2.67 | 3.67 | 1.67 |
21-00UT | 3.67 | 3.67 | 2.67 |
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Nov 02 | Nov 03 | Nov 04 | |
---|---|---|---|
S1 or greater | 50% | 30% | 30% |
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to remain elevated but below the threshold over 02-04 Nov.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 01 2024 1431 UTC.
Nov 02 | Nov 03 | Nov 04 | |
---|---|---|---|
R1-R2 | 75% | 75% | 75% |
R3 or greater | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Rationale: M-class (R1-minor) are expected, with a chance for X-class (R3-strong), through 04 Nov.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 171 |
SOHO EIT 195 |
SOHO EIT 284 |
SOHO EIT 304 |
SDO/HMI Continuum |
SDO/AIA Magnetogram |
LASCO C2 |
LASCO C3 |
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Sun Spots status for 30 Days |
Solar Cycle (mostly can determined every 3 - 13 yrs) |
Spaceweather Notifications and Timeline) |
Forecast KP Index 3 Days Advance |
Click here for much detailed View for X-Ray Chart Click here for much detailed View for Proton Chart
Derived Vertical TEC Derived Vertical Progression. |
Ionospheric / TEC Range Shows Ionospheric Range Error L1/m |
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map |
Southern Hemi Auroral Map |
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
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Move your cursor over the timeline to 'scrub' through the forecast of Solar Wind's velocities. |
Radio Communications Impact
D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTIONS (D-RAP) and VHF and HF Band Conditions
Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:KP Index and Rational Meaning
Global TEC Maps (Unit:TECU)
TACC.CWA (Ionosphere and Space Atmosphere)
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TAC CWB.gov
United States Total Electron Content by SWPC NOAA
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA)
Sunspots (Sidc & NASA)
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather and Ken True of Saratoga Weather
with 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather