Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111704
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 11 Sep 2026 19:39:53 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

607 
ABPZ20 KNHC 111728
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Norbert, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles 
to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a broad 
trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is 
possible over the next few days while it moves generally northward 
and then meanders to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific (EP97):
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual 
development of this system is likely, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves 
generally west-northwestward to westward over the central and 
western portions of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP142026)

...NORBERT GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Sep 11 the center of Norbert was located near 16.6, -124.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 11 2026 000
WTPZ34 KNHC 111444
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 AM HST Fri Sep 11 2026
 
...NORBERT GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 124.7W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2005 MI...3225 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was 
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 124.7 West. Norbert is 
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general 
motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 
48 hours, and Norbert could become a hurricane this weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026 000
WTPZ24 KNHC 111443
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026
1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE  30SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.7N 126.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.0N 128.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.5N 130.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.0N 132.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.2N 134.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.4N 136.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 140.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 16.9N 144.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 124.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 11 2026 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 111445
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 AM HST Fri Sep 11 2026
 
Norbert continues to be defined by a shield of deep convection. The
storm's organization appears to be improving as well, with GPM
microwave imagery from around 1030 UTC suggesting that Norbert's
center of circulation is located closer to the center of
convection, rather than being displaced to the west as it was last
advisory. The latest subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB rated
Norbert at 3.5/3.5, or an intensity of 55 kt, while objective
analyses from UW-CIMSS estimated Norbert to be between 52-61 kt.
Based on a blend of these numbers, Norbert's initial intensity has 
been increased to 55 kt.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be 275/12 kt. Norbert's westward
motion continues to be guided by a low- to mid-level high pressure
system centered over the east Pacific, just to the storm's north.
Track models are in good agreement in depicting a slight turn to the
west-northwest over the weekend, due to an upper-level low weakening
the ridge slightly, before turning toward the west-southwest early
next week as the high pressure strengthens once again. Models are
split in depicting the timing and magnitude of this more southward
turn, hindering forecast confidence beyond 72 h. The latest track
forecast is little changed from the previous advisory, with any
slight adjustments made reflecting a blend of GDMI and HCCA.
 
SHIPS guidance suggests that Norbert will remain in a favorable 
environment for strengthening through much of the forecast period. 
Global models hint at drier air moving down from the East Pacific 
high and being ingested into Norbert's west flank early next week, 
which could induce some weakening. The overall trend across 
intensity guidance is to favor slight strengthening through the 
weekend, before introducing gradual weakening starting early next 
week. The latest intensity forecast generally reflects this, but 
lies on the upper end of the guidance envelope, due to the favorable 
environment Norbert is expected to be in for at least the first half 
of the forecast period.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 16.6N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 16.7N 126.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 17.0N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 17.5N 130.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 18.0N 132.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  14/0000Z 18.2N 134.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 18.4N 136.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 18.2N 140.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 16.9N 144.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026 000
FOPZ14 KNHC 111444
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   1(20)   X(20)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   1(26)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN

Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2026 15:23:07 GMT