Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092312
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 10 Sep 2026 01:09:21 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092321
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles north-northwest of the 
Hawaiian Islands and on newly formed Tropical Depression 
Fourteen-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad trough of low pressure associated with disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms has formed well to the south-southeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development of this system is 
possible late this week into the weekend as this system moves 
generally northward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this 
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
while the system moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued 
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142026)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 15.7, -115.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026 000
WTPZ34 KNHC 092038
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and a generally westward motion is expected over the 
next couple of days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and 
the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday.  
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026 000
WTPZ24 KNHC 092038
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026
2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 092039
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure (Invest 
EP96) has developed a more organized circulation, along with 
persistent convection east of its center. Scatterometry data from 
around 1700 UTC revealed a slightly elongated but closed circulation 
with a max wind of around 30 kt. Subjective Dvorak analysis from 
TAFB rated this system at 2.5/2.5, or an intensity at around 35 kt. 
Given the scatterometry data and satellite imagery, advisories have 
been initiated on Tropical Depression 14-E, with an initial 
intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion of this system was estimated at 285/8 kt, but 
this is uncertain since the system has only recently formed. Global 
models depict mid-level ridging building north of the depression, 
so a primarily west to west-northwest motion is expected over the 
next several days. By late this weekend into early next week, the
guidance depicts a slight weakening in the ridge to the north that 
will shift the track slightly more west-northwestward, before the 
ridge amplifies once again and pushes the system 
west-southwestward.  The official track forecast reflects a blend of 
the HCCA and GDMI, which is on the southern side of the guidance 
envelope. 

The depression is expected to enter an environment favorable for 
gradual strengthening. The SHIPS guidance depicts low vertical wind 
shear, as well as ample mid-level moisture and favorable SSTs, which 
should allow the depression to strengthen to a tropical storm 
tonight or Thursday and into a hurricane later this weekend. The 
official intensity forecast reflects a slower strengthening trend 
within the first couple of days, given that scatterometry data still 
depicts a depression with a slightly elongated center. By the end of 
the week, however, steady strengthening is forecast, and the NHC 
prediction lies on the higher end of the guidance envelope given the 
favorable environment ahead of the depression. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 15.7N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026 144 
FOPZ14 KNHC 092039
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026               
2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34  X  15(15)   7(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
15N 120W       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  16(31)   1(32)   X(32)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2026 21:28:32 GMT