Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241226
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special outlook issued to update AL90 formation chances

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity 
has become better organized in association with a small gale-force 
low-pressure system located about 900 miles east-northeast of 
Bermuda.  This system will likely become a short-lived tropical 
storm later today before more hostile environmental conditions end 
its opportunity for development by this evening.  The low is 
forecast to move northeastward at around 15 to 20 mph while 
remaining over the open central Atlantic.  For additional 
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Tropical Storm Andrea (AT1/AL012025)

...ANDREA BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Jun 24 the center of Andrea was located near 36.6, -48.9 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm andrea Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025 000
WTNT31 KNHC 241410
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012025
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025
 
...ANDREA BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE
ATLANTIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 48.9W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andrea was
located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 48.9 West. Andrea is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this 
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is expected
to begin tonight, with Andrea dissipating by Wednesday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Blake/Hagen

Tropical Storm andrea Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025 000
WTNT21 KNHC 241410
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N  48.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....  0NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N  48.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N  49.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 37.9N  46.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 39.6N  41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N  48.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BLAKE/HAGEN

Tropical Storm andrea Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025 000
WTNT41 KNHC 241411
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012025
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025
 
The area of low pressure between Bermuda and the Azores that we have
been monitoring for a few days (90L) developed persistent deep
convection overnight. This is shown by the latest subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimate from TAFB of 2.0, and the current 
wind estimate of 35 kt is supported by the past several 
scatterometer passes showing 30 to 35 knot winds. Even though deep
convection is now decreasing, due to the persistent convection
overnight and pulsing convection over the past 36 hours, the system
has met the criteria of being classified as a tropical storm, albeit
a marginal one, making Tropical Storm Andrea the first Atlantic 
storm of the year.
 
The initial motion is 060/15 knots. This motion is expected to
continue through dissipation, which is forecast to occur by 36
hours. The track forecast closely follows the TVCA and HCCA
consensus guidance.
 
Andrea will be a short-lived tropical storm, as environmental
conditions will become increasingly hostile over the next day or
so. Water temperatures will plummet to around 21/22C, with vertical
wind shear increasing to 35-40 knots, in a dry mid-level
environment. The intensity forecast holds Andrea at tropical storm
strength today, with the system weakening into a post-tropical
remnant low by Wednesday morning because of the cold waters and 
dissipating shortly thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 36.6N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 37.9N  46.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 39.6N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Blake/Hagen

Tropical Storm andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025 000
FONT11 KNHC 241410
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012025               
1500 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BLAKE/HAGEN

Tropical Storm Andrea Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:12:31 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 15:21:28 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

356 
ABPZ20 KNHC 241142
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore of 
Central America continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form over the weekend while the system moves slowly 
west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 24 Jun 2025 16:40:09 GMT