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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281133
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Ian, located just off the coast of southwestern Florida.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have 
become better organized over the last 24 hours. A short-lived 
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later 
today as the system moves generally northward or north-northwestward 
through the end of the week, remaining over the open central 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND  FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA STARTING LATER TODAY...
 As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 28
 the center of Ian was located near 26.0, -82.7
 with movement NNE at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 937 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 23A

Issued at 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281159
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
 
...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND 
FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA STARTING LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 82.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by
Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data plus Key West radar near 
latitude 26.0 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward the 
north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with a 
reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn 
toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of 
Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area 
later this morning or early afternoon. The center of Ian is 
forecast to move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning 
and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west 
coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane.  Weakening is expected 
after landfall.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
 
The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air
Force Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-16 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood... 6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...7-11 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the
Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River including St. Johns
River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore.  Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area later this
morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning before daybreak.
 
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning today, and should spread up the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the
next few hours.
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
 
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.
 
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida.  Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend.  Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
later this week through the weekend.
 
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight across central
and south Florida.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of 
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday.  These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 23

Issued at 1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 281056
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE IAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO EAST OF BIG
PINE KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL 
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER 
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW 
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  82.8W AT 28/1100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  937 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  82.8W AT 28/1100Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N  82.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N  82.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N  81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...240NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N  81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.8N  80.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...280NE 120SE  90SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.6N  80.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.6N  81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 36.1N  82.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N  82.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 281057
TCDAT4
 
Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and 
forecast intensity.  Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data 
around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb.  This 
supports a current intensity of 135 kt.  

The forecast intensity is raised to 135 kt at landfall, and we are 
now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from 
Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida.  No other significant changes 
were made to the forecast.  

Previous discussion --
 
Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight
hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4
intensity.  The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen
to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight.  The plane
measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR
wind of 109 kt.  A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt.  Although there is some
moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian
very much due to its large size. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is
expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane.  Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida
peninsula.
 
Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the
longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees
at 9 kt.  The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward
through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge
and a broad trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of
Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.
A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the
northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen
the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward
along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and
Friday.  The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very
little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official
forecast.  The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly
slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground 
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the 
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, 
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently 
follow any evacuation orders in effect. 
 
2. Catastrophic wind damage is expected along the southwestern 
coast of Florida beginning in the next few hours where the core of 
Ian makes landfall.  Preparations to protect life and property 
should be urgently rushed to completion. 

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through 
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week 
and this weekend.  Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic 
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with 
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, 
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, 
prolonged major and record river flooding expected across central 
Florida.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1100Z 25.9N  82.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 26.7N  82.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 27.7N  81.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1800Z 28.7N  81.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0600Z 29.8N  80.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  30/1800Z 31.6N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 33.6N  81.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  02/0600Z 36.1N  82.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

Issued at 1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 281056
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE IAN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135   
KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)  14(27)   2(29)   X(29)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   8(19)  14(33)   1(34)   X(34)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   6( 6)   6(12)   4(16)  11(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  4  10(14)  25(39)   8(47)   6(53)   X(53)   X(53)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  3   6( 9)  10(19)   3(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  4  13(17)  29(46)   8(54)   5(59)   X(59)   X(59)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   2( 2)  12(14)   6(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  4  13(17)  23(40)   4(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  6  37(43)  18(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  1   5( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  8  55(63)  18(81)   2(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  2  14(16)  31(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   3( 3)  21(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 26  56(82)   9(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
THE VILLAGES   50  3  21(24)  19(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 44  47(91)   5(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
ORLANDO FL     50  4  50(54)  20(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
ORLANDO FL     64  1  21(22)  20(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 38  46(84)   6(90)   1(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  3  32(35)  20(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X  11(11)  23(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
PATRICK AFB    34 39  45(84)   7(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
PATRICK AFB    50  3  33(36)  20(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
PATRICK AFB    64  X  12(12)  22(34)   X(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 54  32(86)   2(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
FT PIERCE FL   50  3  20(23)  12(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
FT PIERCE FL   64  1   4( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 53  23(76)   2(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
W PALM BEACH   50  3   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34 49  17(66)   2(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34 33  25(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
MIAMI FL       50  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34 27  22(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MARATHON FL    50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KEY WEST FL    50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NAPLES FL      50 94   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
NAPLES FL      64 30   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    50 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
FT MYERS FL    64 58  14(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 
VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      50 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
VENICE FL      64 67  17(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 
TAMPA FL       34 95   4(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TAMPA FL       50 30  41(71)   2(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
TAMPA FL       64  4  23(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 26  35(61)   6(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  3   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  3   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  3   7(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  4   5( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  5   7(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  5  14(19)  10(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ANDROS         34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Ian Graphics

Hurricane Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 11:59:10 GMT

Hurricane Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 10:57:29 GMT

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 09:57:58 GMT

Hurricane Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Ian Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 10:41:55 GMT

Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Hurricane Ian Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 09:02:05 GMT

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at  521 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 /421 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

Issued at  522 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at  532 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Key West, FL

Issued at  538 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Issued at  726 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Melbourne, FL

Issued at  731 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Miami, FL

Issued at  817 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281152
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico: 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area south 
of the southern coast of Mexico are showing signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days 
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast 
of southern and southwestern Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
The remnants of Newton are located about 1,000 miles southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and are currently 
producing disorganized shower activity.  Some slight development of 
the system is possible, and it could briefly become a tropical 
depression again while it moves generally westward over the western 
portion of the eastern North Pacific. Environmental conditions are 
expected to become less conducive for additional development by the 
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 28 Sep 2022 12:42:20 GMT