Current US IR Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 281133 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ian, located just off the coast of southwestern Florida. Central Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized over the last 24 hours. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today as the system moves generally northward or north-northwestward through the end of the week, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)
...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA STARTING LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 the center of Ian was located near 26.0, -82.7 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.
Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 23A
Issued at 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281159 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA STARTING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 82.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West * Dry Tortugas * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Indian Pass to the Anclote River * All of the Florida Keys * Flamingo to South Santee River * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big Pine Key * Florida Bay * Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data plus Key West radar near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area later this morning or early afternoon. The center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane. Weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-16 ft * Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood... 6-10 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...7-11 ft * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft * Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River including St. Johns River...3-5 ft * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft * Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft * Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning before daybreak. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning today, and should spread up the Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches. * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local maxima up to 24 inches. * Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic later this week through the weekend. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight across central and south Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 23
Issued at 1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 281056 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * DRY TORTUGAS A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO * TAMPA BAY * LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER * ST. JOHNS RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS * INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER * ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS * FLAMINGO TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * FLORIDA BAY * BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO EAST OF BIG PINE KEY * FLORIDA BAY * MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 82.8W AT 28/1100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 270SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 82.8W AT 28/1100Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...280NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 82.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 23
Issued at 700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281057 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This supports a current intensity of 135 kt. The forecast intensity is raised to 135 kt at landfall, and we are now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. No other significant changes were made to the forecast. Previous discussion -- Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4 intensity. The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian very much due to its large size. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida peninsula. Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge and a broad trough over the eastern United States. This motion is expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday. A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and Friday. The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently follow any evacuation orders in effect. 2. Catastrophic wind damage is expected along the southwestern coast of Florida beginning in the next few hours where the core of Ian makes landfall. Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, prolonged major and record river flooding expected across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1100Z 25.9N 82.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
Issued at 1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
000
FONT14 KNHC 281056
PWSAT4
HURRICANE IAN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
AT 1100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135
KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 14(27) 2(29) X(29)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 14(33) 1(34) X(34)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KINGS BAY GA 34 4 10(14) 25(39) 8(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WAYCROSS GA 34 3 6( 9) 10(19) 3(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 13(17) 29(46) 8(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JACKSONVILLE 34 4 13(17) 23(40) 4(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 6 37(43) 18(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 1 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 8 55(63) 18(81) 2(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 2 14(16) 31(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X 3( 3) 21(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
THE VILLAGES 34 26 56(82) 9(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
THE VILLAGES 50 3 21(24) 19(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
THE VILLAGES 64 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ORLANDO FL 34 44 47(91) 5(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
ORLANDO FL 50 4 50(54) 20(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
ORLANDO FL 64 1 21(22) 20(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 38 46(84) 6(90) 1(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 3 32(35) 20(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 11(11) 23(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
PATRICK AFB 34 39 45(84) 7(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
PATRICK AFB 50 3 33(36) 20(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
PATRICK AFB 64 X 12(12) 22(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35)
FT PIERCE FL 34 54 32(86) 2(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
FT PIERCE FL 50 3 20(23) 12(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
FT PIERCE FL 64 1 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
W PALM BEACH 34 53 23(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
W PALM BEACH 50 3 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
W PALM BEACH 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 49 17(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MIAMI FL 34 33 25(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
MIAMI FL 50 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 27 22(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARATHON FL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KEY WEST FL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NAPLES FL 50 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
NAPLES FL 64 30 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT MYERS FL 50 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
FT MYERS FL 64 58 14(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VENICE FL 50 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
VENICE FL 64 67 17(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
TAMPA FL 34 95 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 50 30 41(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
TAMPA FL 64 4 23(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 26 35(61) 6(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13)
ST MARKS FL 34 3 7(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15)
APALACHICOLA 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 14(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HAVANA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Ian Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 11:59:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 10:57:29 GMT
Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 09:57:58 GMT
Hurricane Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 10:41:55 GMT
Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 09:02:05 GMT
Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Issued at 521 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 /421 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/
Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL
Issued at 522 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Charleston, SC
Issued at 532 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Key West, FL
Issued at 538 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued at 726 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Melbourne, FL
Issued at 731 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Miami, FL
Issued at 817 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 281152 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 28 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: South of the Southern Coast of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area south of the southern coast of Mexico are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Western East Pacific: The remnants of Newton are located about 1,000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and are currently producing disorganized shower activity. Some slight development of the system is possible, and it could briefly become a tropical depression again while it moves generally westward over the western portion of the eastern North Pacific. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for additional development by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 28 Sep 2022 12:42:20 GMT